Target selection heuristics

Target selection heuristics

TL;DR: Mature programs are picked over; bring a novel angle or move to fresh scope, new subsidiaries, or just-launched asset classes. Picking the right target dominates skill.

What it is

A set of decision rules for choosing which target — and which slice of that target — to spend time on. The bug-bounty market is efficient inside well-trafficked programs; ten thousand hunters have already run nuclei against *.target.tld. Edge comes from finding the parts they have not yet ground over: new acquisitions, new feature launches, new tech adoption, or applying a new technique class. Closely related to program-selection-tactics which covers picking programs; this note covers picking which corner of a chosen program to work.

Preconditions / where it applies

  • You have already chosen a program (program-selection-tactics)
  • You have at least a one-day commitment to that target — anything shorter rewards drive-by checks but not deep hunting
  • A note system (note-taking-while-hacking) to record decision rationale

Technique

Score candidate slices on six axes and pick the highest:

  1. Age of asset. Newer assets have less coverage. Anything tagged “added in last 30 days” on the program page is a target-of-opportunity.
  2. Novelty of angle. If you can apply a technique class the target was likely not tested for — request smuggling, prototype pollution, dependency confusion, OAuth misconfig, SSRF via DNS rebinding — old assets become viable again.
  3. Surface volatility. SPAs that ship a new bundle weekly leak fresh endpoints via js-endpoint-extraction. Static marketing sites do not.
  4. Tenancy model. Multi-tenant SaaS with org/workspace isolation almost always has IDOR / cross-tenant bugs somewhere — high ratio of reward to effort.
  5. Acquisition tail. Recent acquisitions (acquisitions-recon) often run pre-integration tech with the parent’s bounty scope newly extended over it. Six-month window after the press release is gold.
  6. Payout / dupe ratio. Check the program’s published stats — bounty median, time-to-triage, dupe rate. High dupe rate on top assets is the signal to deprioritise them.

Anti-patterns to avoid:

  • Picking the largest asset (www.target.tld) — everyone has hit it
  • Picking based on the most interesting tech alone — a fascinating Kubernetes dashboard nobody can access is worth zero
  • Time-investing without a quality bar — set a 4-hour exit checkpoint and rotate if no leads

Practical heuristic stack:

Detection and defence

  • Programs see hunter focus from report submissions; smart programs explicitly call out under-tested assets on policy pages
  • For the hunter: rotate slices every few weeks to avoid burnout (burnout-and-pipeline) and to detect when a slice has become saturated
  • For the defender: publishing “less-tested assets” lists is a known tactic to redirect hunter attention to newly-added scope

References